Just over half of the Lagosians are expecting Babatunde Fashola to be the next Governor of Lagos. This was revealed in a scientific two phased study conducted by RMS Gallup International in February and March 2007. The study which included a scientific sample of 2850 respondents from all LGAs of Lagos per wave, also showed that Fashola's positive perception was widespread across Lagos with the exception of Epe, Iba, Ikorodu and Oto Aworri.
Commenting on the results of the study Deola Tejumola, the Deputy Chief Executive Officer of RMS Group said, “As the Gallup International company in Nigeria, RMS has the responsibility to continuously monitor public opinion with regards to pertinent issues of which the April 2007 Election is one. We encourage political candidates to develop their manifestos and strategy based on the important issues to the public. The public has the right to be heard and that is what RMS Gallup International ensures.”
The majority of Lagosians perceive Fashola (51%) as their next Governor, Obanikoro (18%) trailing at a distant second. Jimi Agbaje (4%) who has been very active on the public media, has however not been able to translate his strong public presence and image into likelihood for election, although support for him went up from between February and March. Femi Pedro (1%), has not had much weight in the run up to the election having declined from 4% in February.
Although the number of people who are undecided has increased significantly from 15% end of February to 26% end of March, the results show a clear lead by Fashola over the other candidates. It is interesting to note that at this point even if Obanikoro manages to turn all the undecided voters in his favour, he will not be able to catch up with the position that Fashola currently occupies. Out of all the local governments, Obanikoro only had a marginal win in Otto Aworri where he had 38% to 20% for Fashola. However this same local government recorded a significant number of undecided voters.
Not only do Lagosians expect Fashola to win, but they have pledged their support for AC in a similar pattern. Just under half of the population are likely to vote for Action Congress, whilst almost a fifth is likely to vote for PDP. The likelihood for election of Action Congress also indicates a positive note for the party's Senatorial Candidates from this State.
Base: |
Total |
2432 |
Action Congress (AC) |
45 |
People's Democratic Party (PDP) |
19 |
Democratic People's Alliance (DPA) |
4 |
Labour Party (LP) |
1 |
Alliance for Democracy (AD) |
1 |
FRESH Democratic Party (FDP) |
1 |
Undecided |
29 |
Fashola's likely success is strongly backed by an assessment of his personal attributes. He was rated higher than any other candidate on integrity (64%), (Obanikoro 35%), Honesty (60%) (Obanikoro 32%), Leadership Quality (63%) (Obanikoro 35%), Accountability (54%) (Obanikoro 28%), and Transparency (54%) (Obanikoro 28%). Of key importance is Jimi Agbaje's rating which is higher than both Pedro and Obanikoro. The strength of Fashola's perceived attributes is another sign that he is not likely to fall to another candidate.
Even though Fashola, may have been perceived by the media as relatively unknown, this may have given him to create a fresh likeable image through his campaign.
RMS has been the Gallup International Institute in Nigeria since 1984.
It periodically conducts independent opinion polls in Nigeria and other parts of West, Central and East Africa. RMS applied all standard requirements of opinion polling from Esomar and its other body Gallup International Association. However in interpreting these results it should be noted that the March study was conducted during the last week of March and therefore his report does not reflect any activities after 1 April 2007.
